Although some say the U.S. economy has “turned a corner” and Joe Biden says of the stimulus, “In my wildest dreams, I never thought it would work this well,” the unemployment rate has reached a 26-year high and many Americans are suffering. We have not lost the 500 million jobs a month that Nancy Pelosi wildly estimated if the stimulus had not passed, but the numbers are abysmal.
If the economy has turned a corner and is on its way to recovery, those looking for a job might not know it. Neil King wrote in the Wall Street Journal that “Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday that his own hunch was that the economy would turn around over coming months, but that unemployment would ‘penetrate the 10% barrier and stay there for a while before we start down.’”
The most recent reports show the unemployment rate at 9.8 percent. That number doesn’t tell the whole story though. There are many unemployed Americans not included in that figure. Worse still, even if the economy is in recovery, it may be well into 2010 before the effects are felt in the job market.
If that is in fact what happens, the ranks of the unemployed next year may just be joined by some current members of Congress. The latest Gallup poll shows Americans are not happy with the job the Congress is doing. The current approval rating is at 21 percent, down from 31 percent last month.
Those in Congress surely know it too. In late 2003, when economic growth surged “at the fastest pace in nearly two decades” with the gross domestic product (GDP) growing at a 7.2 percent rate, those in Congress hoping to convince voters that George Bush’s policies were failing pointed to the unemployment numbers. To draw attention away from the incredible growth numbers, Democrats pointed to the job market which lagged behind other economic indicators.
In August 2003, reacting to a July unemployment rate of 6.2 percent, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi asked “Where are the jobs, Mr. President.” With the current unemployment rate at 9.8 percent and many predicting it will go higher over the coming months, House Speaker Pelosi should be asking that question even more emphatically than she did six years ago. But since her party controls the White House and both chambers of Congress, I don’t think she will be calling the public’s attention to the dreadful employment situation.
Not calling attention to the problem is not going to make it go away in the minds of voters. In fact, a lack of adequate attention to the jobs problem is what could cost many in Congress their seats. Voters who are unemployed or know someone unemployed are going to wonder about the priority being put on the employment issue, especially when compared to some of the issues currently being debated.
As a reader recently put it when explaining one reason the numbers of those on the left have taken a dive, it is because they are “concentrating on insurance/medical care when unemployment is soaring. Seven in eight are satisfied with their medical care/insurance. One in two college graduates do not have a job. Parents of those college graduates who doled out thousands upon thousands of dollars are not pleased.”
Many more are not pleased that the Congress has moved so far to the left in general, but the employment issue in particular is one that tends to move public opinion. If the public sees the liberal agenda of those in Congress as contributing to the loss of jobs, the electoral effect will definitely be seen next year.
Of course, how the public reacts in the voting booth to the unemployment numbers will depend in part on their impression of the situation. During the Bush years, unemployment rates several points lower than those we see now prompted scores of news reports of gloom and doom. With the current rate of 9.8 percent though, we often see headlines like this recent one at the New York Times: “Obama Aides Act to Fix Safety Net.” If the White House and Congress can convince voters (through positive media like that) they are working hard to address the problem, maybe they won’t pay such a high price on Election Day 2010.
A lot can happen between now and then, but there is one thing of which I am fairly certain -- Nancy Pelosi is not going to be able to blame the employment rate next year on George Bush.
I just realized I'll still be typing next week if I keep talking about the great stuff we've gotten, so I'm going to list it!
Posted by: MBT Shoes | Monday, August 01, 2011 at 05:41 AM